Ready for $70 oil?
Posted May 6th, 2008 by jzneff
output
It's maddening to read all these articles that have analysts predicting $200 per barrel oil in 2008. The reality is, it's not going to happen.
I know this won't ring true to the "sky is falling" crowd, but get ready to see a steady DECLINE in the value of oil...due to several reasons.
1) The dollar is going to begin deflation...I said it...deflation. The reason being the amount of capital lost in the housing bubble is pure capital lost...the value is destroyed...likely several trillion dollars worth of value. The fed got in front of this deflation with some easy money, but it will deflate regardless.
2) The price of oil is rising only on speculation...global oil supplies are up, and global oil demand is down from 2007. Supply goes up, demand goes down, price should go down. It's speculators that watched the meteroic rise from $25 to $75 who only assume oil will continue to go up...it won't in the near future. Look at the recent spikes in crude...they aren't related to supply, but "terrorist" attacks in Nigeria and the Turkish/Kurdish nonsense. Those issues are temporary and the snap back will occur quickly.
3) OPEC is madly overproducing. They know that $120 oil isn't sustainable to their business...in short they know that the market will find alternatives to crude if the price stays there. $70 oil is a very clear line...it's where tar oil, shale oil, and coal oil begin to become competitve. OPEC does not want the American market to develop infastructure, and they'll take less money to keep their cash cow sustainable. Look at the member nations...every one is producing well over their agreed upon limit.
This should begin with a peak around end of May or early June...begin to fall after that throughout the summer. You'll see a small peak again around labor day and then the real bottom will fall out post September. I'm sure you'll all blame election politics, but either way we'll all be happy to pay $2.45 at the pump.
What really is great to hope for is all the speculators that have pumped money into the oil market are going to lose big....right now the $120 price is being held together with string...random acts of terrorism, global insecurity, and worthless economic pundits playing follow the leader.
When the whole world is doing one thing...it's normally profitable to do the opposite. Short-sell oil, blow your broker's mind, and make some quick $$$ in the process.
UPDATE: Please read Dom Armentano or George Soros' pieces on this oil bubble...these are freedom loving men like ourselves who agree with what i'm saying.
http://www.lewrockwell.co...
http://www.telegraph.co.u...
Also...to respond to China/India posts...i'd like to point out that out of roughly 2.5 billion people in those two countries, there are around 50-60 million automobiles. There is no massive growing middle class in China or India...they are made up of 95% poor peasants and a few wealthy people.
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Can anybody explain to me how the housing bubble caused deflation? I understand that all of the phony wealth created by artificially high house prices disappeared, but that money was never in circulation and only theoretical, right? Maybe I'm making the mistake of viewing inflation in terms of the money supply rather than prices?
"The sinews of war are infinite money" ~ Cicero
lol george soros a freedom
lol george soros a freedom loving man... he's financially supported obama!
whats wrong with this picture?
I'll break my rule once
FYI...this is the 8th time you've posted something like this. I hope you don't still wonder why i've stopped reading your posts...because you are a broken record.
Perhaps Soros is making a value judgement saying the lives of millions of Iraqi's and Iranians are his number one priority, and he'll accept some Democrat nonsense to save millions of lives and prevent WW3. So he's picking the lesser of two evils in his mind.
Chastise him all you want...but he's a man who helped topple the Soviets in Eastern Europe. Show me where Jim Sinclair or your Mogambu Guru (whom you seem to follow like a blind rat) helped destroy the Soviet Union.
Ok...now back to ignoring you...
no you show me facts not
no you show me facts not your mind fiction where soros destroyed the soviet union.. by the way the soviet union was only destroyed in name only!
you have not been keeping up on current events.. didn't you read that the russinas now have strategic bombers in cuba again?? now send the link that tells us how great a freedom fighter soros is.. once again your "logic" is circular.... you bow down to soros who finances and supports the the afromarxist obomba who says all options are on the table with Iran including premeptive strike.. soros is a moron! and yes if anyone goes in and reads how your dad has been following me around from post to post on this site and notices the sililarities in your or his writing will see that you ran to daddy!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Let me educate you a little
Soviet Union and Russia are NOT one in the same. Soviet Union was the overlord over many sattelite states in Eastern Europe. Learn to think of Russia as simply the dominant state in the Soviet Union, and you will understand how this worked.
Soros bankrolled many private organizations in Soviet States in the 1980's. The biggest one was Walesa's solidarity movement in Poland, while not a libertarian based group, it was still powerful enough to loosen Russia's grip on Poland. There were many more examples of this in the 1980's.
He has also spent his money to resist further Russian influence since, the Rose and Orange Revolutions come to mind.
You want proof? I'm tired of spinning my wheels when I know you'll revisit this topic again soon. How about you do a little dig and show me how i'm wrong.
So the guy has supported some democrats...are you going to tell me that the Republicans running against them were any better?
lol..... lets put it this
lol..... lets put it this way! at least I am smart enough now not bow to george the coomie bastard soros who supports one world government with his billions of dollars by supporting clinton, obama and others.. this guy you worship is anti everything Ron Paul has stood for! The soviet union collapsed because communism is a self defeating economic system.. it has nothing to do with what soros did ;; man thats funny get real! as far as republicans go.. the republicans are just glorified democrats after reagan.. and even Reagan did some stupid stuff too.. now while you were still what a 10 year old in 88 I was voting for Ron Paul, not the republican... republicans and democrats are one in the same.. soros is nothing more then a fascist! you need to choose better role models young man!
for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Didn't we pass peak oil... how much longer do we have?
Freedom Isn't Free... Freedom costs a buck 'o five - Trey Parker
Romulus...
Please look at this chart, showing world oil production.
http://www.paulchefurka.c...
Now imagine we're back to 1982. Seeing this, couldn't you have presumed that we had already achieved "peak oil" and were headed downward forever?
The production increased quickly...that's because all of the oil they started looking for after the early 1970's (oil crisis) began to come online. The production continued to increase until the early 2000's. Think of the price of a barrel of oil in the mid 1990's...people once again quit looking for new sources of oil.
We have found oil at 38,000 feet underground. The deepest humans have EVER drilled is slighly over 40,000 feet...yet we can conclude that there isn't a massive amount of oil to be found at 45,000 feet?
As far as i'm concerned...peak oil will occur slowly, and as we have to keep digging deeper, it will slowly become more expensive to pump. In the meantime, we will have developed other means. Oil will simply become un-economical...and probably within a generation.
Whens our little rendezvous
Whens our little rendezvous jeff?
November 16th isn't it ?
D-day.
November 15th
Not sure what you mean by rendezvous...but that's the date that I think oil will have crossed under $70.
Hoping to see oil cross $100 before Labor Day. After that, the news media should provide the rest of the momentum to put us down where oil belongs.
timing
Jzneff,
I was one of the lone supporters agreeing with you that oil would correct, not to $70, but to the $98 to $110 level. I believe anything below $90 and OPEC will cut production. However, your August $100 prediction is most likely two months too soon.
Even if the FED raises rates in August, which is only a 50-50 proposition, the market will need to see an upward trend before it believes the dollar is actually being supported by the FED.
Conversely, it does not appear either the Bank of England or the EU Central Bank have any short term inclinations to cut rates any time soon.However both may be forced to within the next 3 months.
Lastly Congress is getting ready for a summer recess which means nothing will be addressed in regards to speculation until mid-September, if at all. Mid Oct is the most likely time for an oil bottom, just before the elections.
Where's the bottom?
I keep hearing everyone talking about a bottom in oil prices. Where would this pressure be coming from?
Gas consumption in the US will continue to slow, and won't be increasing anytime soon. This because the trend is toward smaller more efficient cars (which tends to lag 4-5 years behind the price of gasoline, but is very strong once it begins). This is unlikely to reverse course any time soon.
Gas consumption in the world is falling. Governments have begun and will continue to cut fuel subsidies. The Chinese growth recently is a bubble, and is long overdue for a real correction (yes...bubbles occur in other countries too). The more nations cut subsidies will compound with the effects of a slowdown in the US economy and the hault of US imports as the exchange rates have discouraged it. Much of the fuel consumed in the rest of the world is done so by factories, not automobiles. US consumers don't buy cheap Chinese crap, the Cheap Chinese crap manufacturers close their doors. This has begun, but the Chinese are typical communists and are hiding their problems.
The world supply of oil is coming online. We are right now 9 years after the oil price began it's rise. Remember, it takes 8-10 years to go from oil discovery to pumping. The brief pause in the growth in supply is not due to peak oil, rather the effect of $20 oil a decade ago....no one was looking for it.
The dollar is not sliding now, it has been bouncing back and forth within a few pennies of where it is now...this is the push/pull of inflationary and deflationary pressure. Take a look at the MZM growth charts...they are back to normal now after being historically high earlier this year. We didn't feel the effects of that printing because of deflationary pressure from the housing collapse. Now the printing has slowed, and the dollar should climb against foreign currencies, making oil cheaper.
So...here are the pressures that have an effect so far. We have declining demand and increasing supply. We also have a dollar that should strengthen in the near term.
Those are the fundamentals that affect the price...but I have always insisted that in the price of oil there is built some irrationality. Not evil speculation, not manipulation, nothing more than common human instinct to put money where they "know" it's safe. Oil has gone up for many reasons which are purely speculative. People believe in "peak oil" which isn't based on reality. People think Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia are about to explode. People think that the dollar is about to be worth much less. People believe all of this, which drives the price of oil up up up. This is also a self feeding loop...people believe oil will go up because it has gone up.
People also belived the NASDAQ would keep going up. People believed the real estate would keep going up.
People also believed in 1980 that oil, gold, and silver would continue to rise forever. They didn't.
England and the EU cutting rates will pressure oil downward. Oil is priced in dollars, inflation in the Euro and the Pound will cause the dollar to be worth more, causing oil to be worth less.
Congress is meaningless in this matter. Those impotent morons going after speculators is like watching a monkey trying to fuck a football. They are posturing, just so if by chance i'm right and oil does crash in the near future...they can pat themselves on the back and take credit for something clearly done by the free market.
Everything which is based on reality and the near future is pushing oil down...the only price support is built on a waning irrational belief.
Oil is not bottomed...no matter what Jim Sinclair seems to claim (BTW, oil is now $2.50 below your bottom)
hmmmm who's advice would I
hmmmm who's advice would I trust? a 30 yearold self proclaimed highly educated enlightened intellectual who has never lived threw a serious recession NEVER been a financial expert and relies on "logic" and doesn't know jack didly squat! or a upper 60's ish Financial professional who has been threw the wars?
Jim Sinclair is primarily a precious metals specialist and a commodities and foreign currency trader. He founded the Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services in stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles. The companies, which operated branches in New York, Kansas City, Toronto, Chicago, London and Geneva, were sold in 1983.
From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker.
He was also a General Partner and Member of the Executive Committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and President of Sinclair Global Clearing Corporation (commodity clearing firm) and Global Arbitrage (derivative dealer in metals and currencies).
In April 2002, shareholders of Tan Range Exploration approved the acquisition of Tanzania American International, a company controlled by the Sinclair family, for shares in Tan Range. Following this transaction, Mr. Sinclair became Chairman of Tan Range and now leads its efforts to become a gold royalty company.
He has authored numerous magazine articles and three books dealing with a variety of investment subjects, including precious metals, trading strategies and geopolitical events, and their relationship to world economics and the markets. He is a frequent and enormously popular speaker at gold investment conferences and his commentary on gold and other financial issues garners extensive media coverage at home and abroad.
In January 2003, Mr. Sinclair launched, "Jim Sinclairs MineSet," which now hosts his gold commentary and is intended as a free service to the gold community
NOW READ THIS!
Posted On: Friday, July 25, 2008, 9:56:00 PM EST
The Catalyst For Financial Disaster
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear Friends,
A serious event occurred today. This event was the very public international recognition of more off balance sheet so called “assets” revealed as having little, if any, value.
This event is arguably the most serious financial upset ever. If you have not protected yourself, it is getting very late - maybe too late.
Your best hope is that this event is so complex that the herd of self anointed experts has no clue what that vehicle is, how large it is and therefore the profound meaning it has.
Gold, serious junior gold shares (the only seriously underpriced and therefore real value in equities) and non-dollar short term federal currency instruments are your sanctuary. You better get there, and get there FAST!
Click here for the criteria you should consider when selecting junior gold share situations.
The meaning of this is not only are Freddie and Fannie’s troubles much costlier than realized, but now there is an entirely new definition of market-less financial entities with off balance sheet assets that undermine primarily the US and now international banking systems. Conduit mortgage OTC derivatives will have to be marked down now that the sun is shining on them.
The U.S. mortgage industry transformed itself in a way that has opened dangerous SIV sub prime real estate conduits to global capital markets.
A conduit loan is priced by swaps and swap spreads, thereby becoming a package of various OTC derivatives generally derived from a formula that would make Einstein look like a kindergarten mathematician.
By turning mortgages into securities, lenders created vast distances between homeowners and their mortgage holders, who can be anywhere in the world such as Australia.
US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. Write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are in the cards.
That guarantees the USDX at .6200 and more likely at .5200.
That guarantees gold to reach at least $1650 much sooner than I anticipated.
This strongly suggests that my estimate of $1650 is significantly below the price of gold coming soon.
This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
The greatest economic crime ever committed is OTC derivatives. Those that proffered these will have killed more people than most wars.
This is it and it is NOW!
Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair
THE SERIOUS EVENT IS HERE READ IT!
http://www.businessspecta...
Jims formula is happeneing EXACTLY!
Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006
First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
So who would you put your hard earned money with.... JZ oe Jim Sinclair! ya thats what I thought!
FYI
If you're going to copy/paste from a website, you should just link to that website rather than waste space.
That's actually in Manystrom's rules on these forums.
However, if you're actually going to come up with some of your own words (besides 4 lettered insults) than feel free to fill up as much space as you like.
Not a single word untrue ...
But the all important deflation that is needed probably will not occur short of a collapse.
We will soon find out though. I am willing to eat my crow, are you?
WAHOR!!
Please define
If eat my crow means I'll be a man and admit I was wrong. Carve me up some crow if that day comes.
I've gone out on a huge limb here, and on November 15th, i'll either post a victory post (if oil crossed below $70 between now and then) or i'll post a almost post (If oil got close but didn't quite hit 70) or I will post with the title "Eating my crow today"
Don't even have to go that far...
I know you put yourself out there.
I would prefer an explaination, in your opinion, as to why it did not reach $70. That is it.
WAHOR!!
O.K. getting some chatter about some new info.
We are not going to get to $70 oil. I am pretty firm on this.
The only thing that could bring about $70 oil is a complete economic collapse.
The fed is losing the battle with inflation, they are ready to go to their knees and beg for global intervention.
You had a shot, but I don't think it is in the cards.
Having said that, a complete collapse is not out of the picture, just unlikely at this point. Yes, unlikely, but the probability is increasing over time.
WAHOR!!
Rhino, at the time you
Rhino,
at the time you have a total collapse of the economy that means there is no oil being transported or sold.. people will pay dearly for what they can get in dollar terms.. your talking going mad max.. price of oil won't go down but up.. also.. China and other nations continue to grow. China now has enough credit cards in China that it would equall 5 cards for every man woman and Child in the US! demand is growing.. the economies of China and India with 2.6 billion people coming on line to be consumers will be a huge draw on oil.. I'm sorry but I don't see oil coming down.. Until the fed Defends the dollar which they can NOT do, the price of oil will rise as the dollar devalues! Ron Paul has told us this.. we are into stagflation which if certain measures are not taken will lead to a INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION! it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.. I hope jz would be right.. it would be good for our country as a whole to have 70.00 or less oil but the thing is so far past saving I can't see it! become very self sufficient ... as oil has come down from 147 the dollar has only strengthened from 71.99 to about 72.81..... that is nothing!
all this dollar stong talk is is BS from BS artists at the fed and treasury!
this decline in oil know is setting up oil to go higher then the 147.00 high!
Ive seen the same thing happen in the precious metals for the last 8 years that I have followed that market! the trend is up not down.. a correction in a normal bull market is normal.. the FUNDEMENTALS have not changed.. M3 is exploding world wide... Prices will rise.. and once again... its not speculation.. what a joke that is! Old jz sided with government on that issue! did you see those dolts in DC trying to cover there 6's! what a joke!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
BS from BS artists
SIERRAHPBT,
You beat that silver drum of your's everyday. By your own admission, you have only been in the metals markets for 8 years. Which have been a bull market. You are about three years early on the currency collapse. It WILL happen, but not yet. In the mean time you are in a short war you cannot win.
The US economy has caught a cold and given the Flu the the rest of the world. Worldwide consumption is dropping everyday. Both India and China have higher inflation than the US, and their consumers are doing the same as US consumers; cutting back. Have you seen the price of rice recently?
Gold and silver will continue their slide with the help of the shorts. Grains will be the winners for the next year or two. Countries caught with low gain supplies today will eventually stockpile for the future. Do not look for gold and silver to hit new highs until the US asset fire sale is over, perhaps March or April of next year, but not likely before.
The stock market large caps may be an opportunity for long term investors.The Dow, adjusted for real inflation is trading in the high 6000's in today's dollars. As the FED raises rates the market will bottom out, leaving some nice good quality companies at, finally, with attractive prices.
Write it down SIERRAHPBT, circle it, and stick a pin in it.
Better yet, follow your own advise. But here's a little something to think about: when the dollar collapses, where are you going to sell all that silver? And who is going to want silver when they need food and oil?
and as for my house we we not be persuaded by the last obscure newsletter we read.
well I have been buying
well I have been buying metals since the early 90's.. I bought my silver at 5.00 I'm Not early on anything.. what you fail to understand is that gold and silver are money.. have been since the begining of man's written history.. and so you have a clue.. I won't need to sell them to anyone.. Gold and silver is a store of wealth.. the question is.. when those who have food and oil to sell what will they take? your paper FRN's? owning a farm I'll tell you right now if and when things get as you describe, I would not take a FRN for my beef! but I would consider gold or silver coins! now then mr expert... you say the currency will collapse! ok so its going to strengthen from here and all the sudden collapse? .. no it will slowly lose purchasing power, that is until the derivatives market goes down, wwIII, a banking collapse, or something else unforseen happens that hastens the fall.. 3 years you say.. I may agree with that... I'm thinking more like 2. now as for the asset fire sale next march or april? whats wrong with having the metals now? there are 6 billion ounces of gold in the world.. there are 1 billion ounces of silver.. when the worlds populations start running to the safety of gold and silver because of world wide inflation and loss of confidence in there own money, how are you going to get any??
thats 1 ounce of gold a 1/6 of an ounce of silver! per person! do you think that is enough for you? the big boys are buying.. why do you think they short the market to force the price down? because little people panic out and sell! then they come in and buy cheap.. the big people, banks government stooges, billionairs etc will have theirs they will buy hand over fist and the average guy won't get any! i'd rather be to early then to late.. if silver went back down to 5.00 I could care less! I buy it for different reasons, I know where it is headed! now as for the fed raising rates... you know if the fed raises they will KILL all business activity! they will force A huge depression.. if the fed continues with low rates the dollar slowly dies..
If they cut rates further the dollar dies quickly.. THE FED is between a rock and a hard place.. damned if they do , damned if they don't! they have chosen to inflate.. to prolong as long as they can which in the end will end up in a depression! so I guess its .. do you die by drowning or a shot to the head? the fed chose drowning.. with oil coming down a bit, the dollar has barely strengthed. this price of oil coming down is short lived.. there is still huge demand in China and India.. contrary to what some believe about those nations still be backward, they still have 1/2 the worlds population and need raw materials! OIL being one of them.. what we don't use in a recession/slowdown here they will gladly take! like I said for the past 8 years I have been ALL IN in the metals.. I have done extremly well.. the fundamentals have not changed.. actually the have gotten worse. the fed won't tighten. they are bailing out to the toon of trillions.. you don't think that is inflationary? when Volcker takes over as head of the fed then I will worry!
as for you and especially yours.. I feel sorry ! and those news letters add up to many years and many authors.. threw good times and bad! do what you like... you pays your dues and takes your chances!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Jeff
You are definitely describing what is most probable, but your confidence in such a scenerio is a little too high.
Can you see the future?
You also may be a little late on your highs for gold. Better to be early than late. At least, that is what I think.
WAHOR!!
well I have been buying
well I have been buying metals since the early 90's.. I bought my silver at 5.00 I'm Not early on anything.. what you fail to understand is that gold and silver are money.. have been since the begining of man's written history.. and so you have a clue.. I won't need to sell them to anyone.. Gold and silver is a store of wealth.. the question is.. when those who have food and oil to sell what will they take? your paper FRN's? owning a farm I'll tell you right now if and when things get as you describe, I would not take a FRN for my beef! but I would consider gold or silver coins! now then mr expert... you say the currency will collapse! ok so its going to strengthen from here and all the sudden collapse? .. no it will slowly lose purchasing power, that is until the derivatives market goes down, wwIII, a banking collapse, or something else unforseen happens that hastens the fall.. 3 years you say.. I may agree with that... I'm thinking more like 2. now as for the asset fire sale next march or april? whats wrong with having the metals now? there are 6 billion ounces of gold in the world.. there are 1 billion ounces of silver.. when the worlds populations start running to the safety of gold and silver because of world wide inflation and loss of confidence in there own money, how are you going to get any??
thats 1 ounce of gold a 1/6 of an ounce of silver! do you think that is enough for you? the big boys are buying.. why do you think they short the market to force the price down? because little people panic out and sell! then they come in and buy cheap.. the big people, banks government stogges billionairs etc will have theres they will buy hand over fist and the average guy won't.. i'd rather be to early then to late.. if silver went back down to 5.00 I could care less! I buy it for different reasons, I know where it is headed!
as for you and especially yours.. I feel sorry !
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Heading or headed?
Heading or headed?
SIERRAHPBT,
An interesting choice of words. Is silver headed higher, or heading higher? You say headed. Well even a broken clock is right twice a day. And just like your predictive comment, you too will be right eventually, if we all live that long; just not right now.
I am not against gold or silver, I am against only gold or silver. The only reason I felt compelled to even show you the holes in your silver theories, is because of how crass and rude you were to the young man that started this thread. Call me old fashioned but I hate to see stronger opponent whip up on a weaker one , especially with flimsy facts.
The fact is the end is not near , yet. Dr. Paul would have never run for office if he thought he did not have enough time to fix what was broken. As a farmer yourself, why aren't you telling people to grow some of their own food? SIERRAHPBT, you annoy me, you do not practice what you preach or maybe you forgot about the golden rule. Admittedly, I have enjoyed rubbing your nose in it. You are not nearly as market savvy as you think you are. Anybody can make money in a bull market. Lets see how your one way thinking treats you from here forward. You have a long way to go buddy. Don't sell the farm.
LMFAO----ROTFL! now it all
LMFAO----ROTFL! now it all comes into view! I sat here thinking that JZNEFF and JEFF34761 were the same person... lol...the names were similar etc the writing styles are similar..... even words used in posts were similar..
Jeff wrote----
because of how crass and rude you were to the young man that started this thread. Call me old fashioned but I hate to see stronger opponent whip up on a weaker one , especially with flimsy facts.
now it all comes into focus.. JEFF is JZ's dad LMFAO! JZ gets his butt kicked and dad comes to his rescue! You Sir are a joke! you are just like your kid.. present all kinds of off the wall "facts" and nothing to back up your position.. now you say that the end is not near? again just like your kid.. you never read any of Ron Pauls material.. here is a refresher for you or will your selective reading allow you to read it in full!
http://www.infowars.net/a...
Seems to me Ron Paul thinks were getting near the end! but what Does Ron Paul know he's only been in the congress for 30 years!
now with JZ's other post called don't give up on the American economy I got to wondering .. what is JZ's agenda.. now that comes into focus as well.. JZ is a middle management employees at his dads work! lol.....
and they sell stocks, or bonds, are against a Gold standard etc. so by people taking defensive moves against an Inflationary depression which Ron Paul says were heading into! people don't buy securities so basically jz and jeff are out of work! WOW! you sir have not rubbed my nose in anything.. you sir are a pompous jerk just like your kid.. your kid is being proven wrong about speculation running up the price of oil! how many more times will you and your kid take the government view of things? how long will you continue to be brainwashed!
as for reccomending people to farming I HAVE MANY TIMES! I have told people to get as self sufficient as possible! to buy Farm land if possible or to move to a farm with a family member or close friend.. once again jeff your selective reading and baffle em with BS posts run wild.. you do not have the facts!
as far as the golden rule goes! you need to teach your kid that just because he thinks he is a highly enlighted intellectual which he said about himself (what a joke), he talks down to people when he is presented with facts that he will not attempt to refute because he can't.. again am I going to take the advice of a 70 year old market expert like Jim Sinclairs or some snot nosed 30 yearold kid who bases his economic theory on his own "logic"???
then we have the george soros crap.. that guy is the farthest thing from a freedom loving individual! if he loves freedom why does't he back Ron Paul..??? but who does he back and give his money to??? Obomba! the AFRO MARXIST! You 2 are a joke!
also jeff you need to go back and read the market structure in silver.. but you won't .. Butler lays it all out! actually please don't.. I would want my reccomendation to enrich you!
now you do have something right in your post.. you said....
"because of how crass and rude you were to the young man that started this thread. Call me old fashioned but I hate to see stronger opponent whip up on a weaker one , especially with flimsy facts. "
your right I am a much Stronger opponent then your son! My facts are based on market fundamentals, not my own- think it up in my brain because I think i'm a highly enlightened intellectual -logic like your kid does! and if my facts were flimsy how could I be the stronger opponent?
and if you read this thread over from the beginning.. I wasn't the one who started the condensending crap.. its amazing how i differ with Rhino, and GREEDISBAD, but our conversations have not gotten to the point they are with you 2! I respect their Ideals.. I think it will be an inflationary depression, they tend to think deflation first.. and I can respect that. I think they are wrong but were not far off!
now if you both Father and Son disagree with so much of what Ron Paul says why are you even here? interesting isn't it!
Umm...
You're making moronic assumptions, don't you think?
Jeff23432 (or whatever the number) is either myself writing as another name, or my dad?
Here's some truth here...my Dad is a rank and file neocon who sells cars, and can barely type. I'm pretty sure he's not posting on this site.
Some more truth...I have never personally met anyone who has ever posted on this site (at least to my knowledge).
Here's some more truth. I have never posted on this site (or any site since I was 18 for that matter) as anything except jzneff.
A little more truth...I do not and have never worked in securities, banks, government, or anything else that would lead me to have an agenda.
You think my analysis and opinions are so far fetched that not a human alive would agree with me? You may be of the majority opinion here, but it's not that hard to think that someone in their right mind would share my views.
If you're trying to provoke me into a childish fight, it will not work. I have and will rise above you. Please stop replying to me, it's obvious you don't read what I type before you reply, and I have given up with you. I know what your point of view is, and myself or anyone else here can just go to Jim Sinclaire's website if we need your opinion.
I think our only beef is M3.
The leverage on one dollar is something like 7X. If there is a collapse in the credit markets and liquidity completely dries up, unless the fed has printing presses ready to come on line, there will be massive deflation.
Remember what M3 is. The actual paper is only a small percentage of the total number.
WAHOR!!
?
Does M3 only measure paper currency? I thought it was supposed to keep track of all money in circulation, paper and digital. Of course I don't know what I'm talking about so... no surprise if I'm wrong!
"The sinews of war are infinite money" ~ Cicero
OK you will have massive
OK you will have massive deflation in houses, stocks bonds, etc.. but massive inflation in gold silver oil, food clothes, etc.. if you need it to live it will cost big bucks.. anything that is a luxery will decline.. remeber just because we have deflation here doesn't mean there is not demand in the rest of the world with 5.6 billion people.. our 300 million isn't spit compared to the rest!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
OK you will have massive
OK you will have massive deflation in houses, stocks bonds, etc.. but massive inflation in gold silver oil, food clothes, etc.. if you need it to live it will cost big bucks.. anything that is a luxery will decline.. remeber just because we have deflation here doesn't mean there is not demand in the rest of the world with 5.6 billion people.. our 300 million isn't spit compared to the rest!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Assuming that the fed acts rationally and tries to
keep faith in the dollar. I think you have it exactly backwards.
But what do I know?
WAHOR!!
$23 in less than 2 weeks!!!
Probably won't continue dropping quite this fast, and certainly the bulls will have their days...but this is quite good news for all of us. I paid $3.89 per gallon today.
In case you followed my advice and shorted in the $135-$145 range, now would be the time to excercise enough of your options to break even, then you'll have what's left is pure profit. You could probably do this with 20-30% of your options, leaving zero risk.
The price should bounce around the mid $120's for a while...with no new bad news in Iran, it should get to around $100 by the end of August. The real fun should be mid September to mid November.
I think i'll go buy a Hummer (kidding)
Be careful there JZ ...
We are no where close yet. Only time will tell. I still think you are 3 months early on your prediction if you are correct at all.
We still have to see deflation for $70 oil. There is no way around it.
Having said that, the probability of deflation increases every week.
If the commercial banks start to topple, you are a shoe in.
God speed.
WAHOR!!
More support for the weak
More support for the weak dollar higher goes the oil position.. ITS NOT SPECULATORS.. SOROS IS A MORON!
Bunning Statement To The Senate Banking Committee On The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I know we have a lot of ground to cover today, but I want to say a few things on the topic of this hearing and of the next.
First, on monetary policy, I am deeply concerned about what the Fed has done in the last year and in the last decade. Chairman Greenspan’s easy money the late nineties and then following the tech bust inflated the housing bubble and created the mess we are in today. Chairman Bernanke’s easy money in the last year has undermined the dollar and sent oil to new record highs every few days, and almost doubling since the rate cuts started. Inflation is here and it is hurting average Americans.
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Are you a Professional jz??
Posted On: Friday, July 18, 2008, 7:48:00 PM EST
An Important Statement Concerning Present Financial Problems
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear Friends,
The following may well be the single most important statement made concerning the present financial problems, and present applied financial solutions.
“If the U.S. Fed, U.K. central bank, and other central banks continue to protect all of the institutions, all of the shareholders, and all the depositors, the crisis will actually be more prolonged and more difficult to come out of than if they let a lot of the smaller institutions go broke.
Thus far, it is obvious that the Fed and the U.S. and U.K. administrations want to make the government the lender of last resort and make it a world where mistakes are not punished. We go on record saying that this is a mistake...the example of Japan comes to mind.”
--Monty Guild and Tony Danaher
There are no practical solutions to the financial problems brought about by the proliferation of OTC derivatives that when called upon to perform cannot. When they are properly valued, zero is the real worth.
For this reason, every reaction down in gold and up in the dollar has been, and will continue to be a buy gold, sell dollar.
I am filled at $960.10, $950.10 and biding $940.10.
Gold is a currency and not an energy product.
Crude was due for a downer as the long side simply became overcrowded. The first potential bottom is at $125.50 where strong support stands. The second potential price and in all probability the absolute bottom, if hit, is not too far below that.
If you are not a professional stay away from crude.
I know when gold is down as my phones start coming off their bases by themselves. When gold is going up I am the Maytag repairman. Please consider this when you start to dial my number.
Gold is going to $1200 in 2008 and thereafter to a minimum of $1650.
Everything else, even today, is noise.
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Buy the dips and sell the peaks.
Who knows what the heck is going to happen?
I will pray for all of you tonight.
WAHOR!!
Rhino, its not hard to
Rhino,
its not hard to know what will happen in economics when the government or the fed are involved... and knowing what crap happens when wicked greedy men screw the thing up!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
There was an oil interest yesterday of 32,712 $200 oil calls w
read the full storey here...
www.urbansurvival.com
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
everything is just peachy in the USA
http://business.timesonli...
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
everything is just peachy in the USA...
Ron Paul seems to think so also...see:
.
http://www.infowars.net/a...
.
.
Where's the happy little tire swing?
Please read that speech again
You will find that we are not saying anything different.
This problem we're facing with our economy can be as short and painless...or long and painful as we want it to be. I see nowhere in there that we are on the edge of a major collapse...nor do I see that the US economy is beyond help.
What I see him saying is that we are at a major crossroad, and the opporitunity to fix it is now. By fixing it...I mean stop trying in vain to fix it...let the market play out.
I have disagreed with the good doctor in the past...but I could definitely not said it any better myself. The time to change is now, and it is NOT too late to save our country.
This is why i'll follow this man to whatever end...he knows more than anyone the challenges we face...and he's willing to man up and say "this can be fixed".
Predicting doomsday does not help our cause...I assure you.
SPIN SPIN SPIN!!!!!!!!! NOW
SPIN SPIN SPIN!!!!!!!!! NOW AGAIN SPINNING Ron PAULS OWN WORDS!
AND this is where you and I differ... the only way to fix it is if the congress, the fed , and the moron sitting in the oval office do a 180!
THEY WON'T.. at least until its to late! why can't you get that threw your HEAD. READ THE WHOLE SPEECH! again you pick and choose what you want to see! WE ARE JUMPING OFF THE CLIFF!
I’m fearful that my concerns have been legitimate and may even be worse than I first thought. They are now at our doorstep. Time is short for making a course correction before this grand experiment in liberty goes into deep hibernation.
There are reasons to believe this coming crisis is different and bigger than the world has ever experienced. Instead of using globalism in a positive fashion, it’s been used to globalize all of the mistakes of the politicians, bureaucrats and central bankers
The financial crisis, still in its early stages, is apparent to everyone: gasoline prices over $4 a gallon; skyrocketing education and medical-care costs; the collapse of the housing bubble; the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble; stock markets plunging; unemployment rising; massive underemployment; excessive government debt; and unmanageable personal debt. Little doubt exists as to whether we’ll get stagflation. The question that will soon be asked is: When will the stagflation become an inflationary depression?
But it was never destined to last, and now we have to pay the piper. Our huge foreign debt must be paid or liquidated. Our entitlements are coming due just as the world has become more reluctant to hold dollars. The consequence of that decision is price inflation in this country–and that’s what we are witnessing today. Already price inflation overseas is even higher than here at home as a consequence of foreign central banks’ willingness to monetize our debt.
---AND I LOVE THIS ONE! IT BLOWS 70.00 DOLLAR OIL OUT OF THE WATER----
Printing dollars over long periods of time may not immediately push prices up–yet in time it always does. Now we’re seeing catch-up for past inflating of the monetary supply. As bad as it is today with $4 a gallon gasoline, this is just the beginning. It’s a gross distraction to hound away at “drill, drill, drill” as a solution to the dollar crisis and high gasoline prices. Its okay to let the market increase supplies and drill, but that issue is a gross distraction from the sins of deficits and Federal Reserve monetary shenanigans
This bubble is different and bigger for another reason. The central banks of the world secretly collude to centrally plan the world economy. I’m convinced that agreements among central banks to “monetize” U.S. debt these past 15 years have existed, although secretly and out of the reach of any oversight of anyone–especially the U.S. Congress that doesn’t care, or just flat doesn’t understand. As this “gift” to us comes to an end, our problems worsen. The central banks and the various governments are very powerful, but eventually the markets overwhelm when the people who get stuck holding the bag (of bad dollars) catch on and spend the dollars into the economy with emotional zeal, thus igniting inflationary fever
NOW how the hell you can read these parts and say That Ron Paul is NOT saying that were at the edge! is beyond me!!!! yes the thing can be fixed... we will still feel some pain but nothing like what is coming if we do not stop the fed , the congress and the pres.! IF THIS SITUATION IS NOT TAKEN CARE OF IMMEDIETLY WE WILL COLLAPSE! SO FAR ITS STILL THE SAME JOKERS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, CONGRESS and idiots in the FED.AND STILL THE SAME POLICIES! WAKE UP JZ YOUR MISSING THE BOAT!
SIERRAHPBT the DP Chicken Little
SIERRAHPBT, The sky is not falling. The FED and its surrogates are consolidating their influence and power though. They will nationalize the entire banking system before they put up the white flag. The same that occurred in Norway, Sweden and Finland is the 90's. Do not kid yourself.
Your fear-mongering only helps them facilitate their plan of consolidating their power over you. Do you really think they will quietly allow you to break their gold and silver short? Wake up. Look no further than to what recently happened when the SEC stepped in to stop the shorts on the financial stocks. They will not let you win a short squeeze war on precious metals. Look past the forest for the trees, unless a barter market is set up, your precious silver position is still denominated in fiat currency, which they control. I do not care how many obscure newsletters you subscribe to, your arms are too short to box with the banking monopoly. Just ask the Hunt brothers.
Understand the underlying issue. The Chinese refused to reprice their currency, so the central bankers are doing it for them by repricing assets.When the water stops slushing around in the barrel early next year we'll be back to business as usual, with the collapse being a collapse in our standard of living. The powers that be will never allow a true barter market to develop, whether with sound money or otherwise.
In fact, backing a currency with gold or silver is out of date. We should be pushing for a kilo-watt backed currency. You sure can not run your car, house or business on gold or silver.
WOW! no Ron Paul seems to
WOW! no Ron Paul seems to think a currency backed by gold is what we need so you also disagree with Ron Paul! how did you ever find yourself to this site! now as far the chinese not repricing there currency? you better get your facts straight on that 1... the Chinese currency has been appreciating against the dollar for 2 years now... go look it up!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
GOOD READING...
the nationalization of the UNITED STATES!
last paragraph of the below article
After the stress working through the entire system becomes even more acute, a big factor will favor gold & silver. The ability for the Powers to control USTreasury long-term yields, to control the USDollar, to bring the crude oil price to heel, to manage the interest rate swaps and other overgrown credit derivatives, that control will diminish. They will be forced, just like under the triage tents, to decide what they must let go. The agents to control prices, rig those prices, and distort those markets will be under huge strain themselves. They might be burdened by the mundane task of survival. My full expectation is that gold & silver will be released from control, by expedience. It will be too costly and unprofitable to attempt control anymore. JPMorgan will continue to manage its ‘Garbage Can’ free from the nuisance of accounting disclosure. But they too will become too distracted by the credit derivative mess that they contributed in building
http://www.kitco.com/ind/...
were not in late 70's early 80's kansas anymore TOTO!
http://www.reuters.com/ar...
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
DERIVATIVES BANKS AND BAIL OUTS!
this is not the recession of the late 70's early 80's
were in unchartered territory!
Dear CIGAs,
DERIVATIVES, BANKS, AND BAILOUTS
We at Guild Investment Management have mentioned the problems with derivatives 31 times in the five years between 2003 and the present in our market commentaries, yet people did not listen. Now, many people call us who own bank stocks and banking related instruments wondering what to do. Our opinion is to sell into rallies U.S. banking related stocks. There is no reason to own banking stocks in this environment as the problems will continue for years. In the end, many equity shareholders will be wiped out.
If the U.S. Fed, U.K. central bank, and other central banks continue to protect all of the institutions, all of the shareholders, and all the depositors, the crisis will actually be more prolonged and more difficult to come out of than if they let a lot of the smaller institutions go broke.
Thus far, it is obvious that the Fed and the U.S. and U.K. administrations want to make the government the lender of last resort and make it a world where mistakes are not punished. We go on record saying that this is a mistake...the example of Japan comes to mind.
The Japanese market peaked in 1990 at about 40,000 on the Nikkei 225 just as their banking crisis began. Japan did not confront their banking crisis. They kept a lot of 'zombie' banks alive and did not write off the bad loans. The banking system languished and the Japanese stock market bottomed down over 75% from its highs when it got to about 9,000 in 2003. Today it is still only at 13,000.
Is that what you would like to see in the U.S. and Europe? If so, then go ahead and continue with what looks to be the current Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury strategy of keeping weak institutions operating 'as if' they were healthy and able to lend.
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
GLOBAL INFLATION.... NO 70.00 OIL!
Read the full article at www.jsmineset.com
FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC... A BIG BAILOUT HAPPENED THIS WEEK AND IT WILL CREATE GLOBAL INFLATION
As we all know, these two institutions were in effect taken over by the U.S. Federal Government, which will supply their equity and guarantee their debt for the time being. The government intervened because much of the two agencies' $5 trillion of endangered debt is held by foreign central banks. This is a bailout and it will create a lot of liquidity which will be thrown into the system. An end result of the bailout is that it pumps massive liquidity into the system. This new liquidity is on top of all the other liquidity, foreign and domestic, that is piling into the system...thereby further fueling inflation in commodities, raw materials, foods, energy, transportation and services, and of course precious metals.
In our opinion, inflation will be the game, not deflation...unless they are unable to flood the economy and banking system with enough money to rebuild liquidity. They will continue to try, but if they cannot do this within three or four years, then we expect deflation can take hold. In the meantime, we are planning on inflation for the next few years and higher gold and food prices...and a lower dollar.
For our clients, we have been shifting out of some gold ETF's and into some big cap gold stocks, which can perform better if there is a quick run in the gold price
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
I was at Freedom Fest
I was at Freedom Fest last weekend and saw a guy named Shef Lyle give a presentation on why he thinks peak world oil production has already happened.
His web site is: http://www.lyleenergy.com
---
Here are a few points he made that I found interesting:
1. OPEC allocates its production quotas in proportion to the reserves of each member country. Members of a cartel who cheat on their quotas make much greater profits than the more honest members. Also, none of these nations allow independent verification of reserves. So, *every* OPEC member has an economic incentive to overstate their reserves.
2. Someone (I didn't write down the guy's name) had defected from Saudi Arabia and used to work in their oil industry. He said that the "water-cut" in their oil fields was reaching high levels. As oil is removed from the ground, the pressure in the oil reduces, so they pump in water to prevent it from collapsing, but this eventually results in the oil being diluted, so productivity drop off. Also, 97% of Saudi Arabia's oil is "sour" oil (as opposed to "light sweet crude" oil, which is very undesirable oil to use.
3. The energy and equipment used for "oil shale" extraction may never be economical because extraction and processing requires large amounts of energy and equipment -- the energy and equipment costs keep increasing as oil prices go up. It's like a horse trying to eat the carrot dangling at the end of a stick that's attached to the horse's head.
4. In the old days they'd pump an oil well if its ratio was 100:1 (this means that for each unit of energy you put in to drilling, you get out 100 units of energy). We're a lot more efficient now, so they can get away with 12:1 ratios. But ethanol's ratio is 0.8:1 -- which means that ethanol production is a net consumption of energy.
5. Most of the world's oil is controlled directly by governments (I can't remember, I think it was in the 80%-90% range), which means that these governments could very well reduce exports to us even if it wasn't completely economical to do so. Also, most if not all of these countries have already kicked U.S. companies out of their oil operations (for example, through nationalization) and many are building their own refineries, so we'll have no control whatsoever.
6. Even if we allow drilling the continental shelf, there are only 13 "ultra deep rigs" in the whole world -- it takes time to build these rigs.
Shef Lyle said he expects oil to be at least $170 per barrel by the end of 2008.
I disagree
1) They don't decide their quotas by reserves....this is untrue. They decide by balancing member state's market shares, the crude price, and the market demand. And almost all of the OPEC states are overproducing their quota's and have been for quite some time. It is absolutely in their interest to understate their reserves, making oil appear to be more rare than it is.
2) Secondary extraction by pumping in water does not dilute the oil. And while the percentage of Saudi light sweet is dropping, it's much more than 3% of Saudi production.
3) Oil shale being economical is 30 year old rumors. They are currently running shale extraction in South Dakota (Chevron?) and getting 4 or 5 units of oil for each unit of energy by utlilizing in-situ liquification methods. It is economical, and has a price equivilent to $60-70 per barrel.
4) Yeah....when you have to dig deeper for oil, you have to pump harder. Even this being the case, even the deepest wells pumping right now produce a cost of $20-$25 per barrel to pump. Ethanol can be a viable alternative...but corn subsidies and Iowa giveaways skew the market. There are a million more crops that can produce ethanol much more effectively compared to corn. Sugar beets are far better.
5) Yes...most oil is controlled by governments...but this is not a new thing. It's been the case longer than i've been alive. Believe me, though, the consumer holds a much bigger ace in the hole than the producer in this case...it is in the best interests of the producers to maintain a low crude price...so the market does not have the incentive to develop alternatives.
6) Funny you mention the time it takes to build a rig. Yes, the process of finding oil, building the well, and getting it pumping is quite a long process, often 8-10 years in length. Stay with me here...
If you assume it takes about 8-10 years from the beginning of looking for new oil, to the first barrel hitting the market...that will explain to you what is called "peak oil".
Check out a world oil production chart...look here
http://www.paulchefurka.c...
Sure looks like oil has peaked and will fall off forever like this chart suggests...but look at the anomoly from around 1980 to 1982...why does the production fall off, and then rise substantially after that?
Remember the oil shocks from the early 1970's? The crude price was historically low in the early 1970s, but then as a result of Israel's wars, the price shot up. This gives the incentive for people to search for more oil, and allows you to economically "dig deeper" because finally you had a profit motive to pull harder (which remember, is more expensive) and thus after about 8-10 years, the price fell off.
So you see, after 8-10 years of very high oil prices, finally the wells were being tapped and the price of oil came down very dramatically...and stayed there for...8-10 years...go figure.
Now fastfoward to the late 1990's. We have had low prices for more than a decade...then, in 1999, the price begins to creep up again. Demand was outpacing supply, because simply no one was digging new wells. Now we again have a profit motive to dig.
Production of crude has flatlined globally...but before you blame a ever running out supply of global oil...watch the dollars. 10 years ago, there were prices in the $20-25 range per barrel. This is why you see a decline in production.
Expect this cycle to repeat itself...right now there is a mad scramble to find more oil. In 2016....much of the newly found oil will come onto the market, which will drive the price of crude historically low again (inflation adjusted, of course). Let's hope that by then, we'll have developed a few alternatives...and maybe someday we'll break this stupid cycle.