Weekend Watching: The Mother of All Crashes
Posted August 2nd, 2008 by Michael Nystrom
output
The Silent Crash is Starting to Make Some Noise
Robert Prechter has a new video out called "The Silent Crash is Starting to Make Some Noise" that is worth your time (and money) to watch. This is a 42 minute slideshow with 27 slides, mostly charts. Prechter narrates. This is a followup to his excellent 2006 video that was simply titled, "The Silent Crash." Unless you're already a subscriber, it will cost you $29 to watch, but it is well worth it, in my opinion. The show starts with this slide:
This is the Dow priced in real money - gold. It is down 73% to date from its peak. If Congress, the Fed and the Treasury had not been colluding to inflate the our currency and destroy the dollar, this is what the nominal Dow would look like, too. And according to Prechter's analysis, it soon will.
As Mises put it, "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion." Yes, the powers that be have postponed the final collapse for the past several years, but the reckoning awaits us patiently. There is no means, says Mises, of avoiding it. As time passes, it becomes easy to fool oneself into thinking we may have escaped the worst - but in case you haven't noticed, the storm clouds are gathering. There are some chilling reminders that the worst is yet to come, and hopefully spur you to act. The time to protect your assets is now.
The movie comes with a money back guarantee. Check it out here.
I will have more updates in the future as my time permits - sign up to my low volume, no spam email announcement list to be notified.
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Does anyone have the prime rate data in the 30's? I used to
have very detail data, but I have to look for the print out. I wonder if it's still available on line somewhere.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
NO ONE? There used to be data on line like this
for the 30's, but I cannot find it anymore on-line. In the data, you could clearly see the sudden jump in the prime rate. If memeory serves me, I think the rate was about doubled or maybe it was more than doubled, but I can't remember. I need to dig up the print out. This is the problem of doing this type of study as a hobby. I study for my own amusment, so when I want to show something to someone, I'm not organized!
This data is from 1955.
http://research.stlouisfe...
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
Bell curves.
Waxing and Waning. Biology and the way of the Universe. What.... you think that perpetual growth can go unchecked forever. That's considered cancer.
So has begun a time of Waning.
it should come as a big red flag to everyone that...
they are trying to legislate (restrict or control) 'short selling' ...why would the SEC do this? i think it is because they are expecting major short selling to occur very soon...
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/...
July 16, 2008, 10:45 am
The Latest Wachtell Memo on Short Selling: Did it Move the SEC?
Posted by Dan Slater
The big news on Wall Street today is the SEC’s announcement that it will attempt to curb improper short-selling in the stocks of struggling Fannie, Freddie, as well as those of 17 financial firms, including Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley. Here’s a handy story from the WSJ’s Kara Scannell and Jenny Strasburg, as well as the proposed rules.
http://www.sec.gov/rules/...
"There is little chance the sheople will wake up
until the wolves have them by the throat" - read on
http://news.goldseek.com/...
that is an excellent
that is an excellent article! everyone should read it, but make sure you understand it!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
What did it say. It was too long for me.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
Can't afford the whole show, but what a slide!
That one alone is pretty amazing.
Gold price is managed...obviously..who owns the stuff.
This graph is your dollar being printed and printed and printed.
The depression was managed. It allowed a whole bunch of collectivist stuff to get laid into our system.
This financial meltdown crap is trotted out again and again.
THEY RUN THE CASINO!
It is their money.
It is their gold.
They created the depression to get things done that they wanted to get done....do some research. The depression wasn't some horrible calamity that happened because of some horrible policies that brought us all down. and "oh my God it might happen again" and "oh my God what are we going to do?"...stop believing their crap!
They are managing you with FEAR.
It all belongs to them.
IF YOU ONLY BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE, THEN, THEY CAN CONTROL YOU BY SHOWING YOU WHAT THEY WANT TO SHOW YOU.
Oh my God look at this graph...Peter Prechter says we are all gonna die!
Peter Prechter is a genius. HE KNOWS WHAT THE DEPRESSION WAS ABOUT....duh.
It was a liquidity play. They jammed all the banks and instituted socialism...they control the money right? They STOPPED PRINTING MONEY AND WIPED OUT ALL THE LITTLE BANKS. DO SOME RESEARCH.
Prechter knows this sh%$. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of finance in the 1920's and today knows how it works...they set up all the little banks and investors with STUPID easy money for about 10 years and then JAMMED them
($10 could by $100 in stock and then, once you bought the stock, you could margin it again and buy another $100..stupid easy money...sounds like a "no income verification" mortgage to me don't it?..stupid easy money)
The fed would not help the little banks with liquidity...the fed wanted all the little banks dead and they pretty much got their effing wish.
Do the research. The depression was a liquidity crank. They shut off the presses.
It was not some "uncontrollable calamity that is going to happen again."
Save your money and do some research. My folks own stock in a "Little" bank that missed ONE dividend in the last century...the directors had liquidity. They did not need the fed to float them...which was just as well BECAUSE THE FED WAS INSTRUCTED NOT TO FLOAT ANY OF THE LITTLE BANKS....and they didn't...who owns the fed? What do the owners of the fed want?
Come on now 2+2 = 4
Seek the truth and ye shall find.
Or. another way to put it
The truth shall set you free.
ok....brain finally kicked
ok....brain finally kicked in.
if what you're saying is true, that The Great Depression was intentional, and essentially an effort to consolidate power in the financial/banking systems of the U.S.
so the logical conclusion would be that this time around, it's an intentional effort to consolidate power in the financial/banking systems of the WORLD.
well, that's a cheerful thought. the globalists don't have to win in the arena of politics, they just have to win in the arena of finance, money, and banks.
I'm going outside for a while.
Of course it was all intentional
None of it was random. No financial drama, no matter the country nor war was random. They plan and finance both sides and reap profit from the ruins of others. From my post below I am saying I believe for the first time the game is up. First because it is known and second because they have cornered themselves. This situation, this time around is beyond sleight of hand trickery to deceive the masses out of fear to restore the economy. The curtain has been pulled and there is nothing of substance to save it no matter the clever explanations of reasons, blame or coming to the rescue. Nothing still adds up to nothing and that is what they have.
Just check the interest rates back then.
If memory serves me, I think that, at least, one of the interest rates (I forgot which) was suddenly doubled, I think.
Can you imagine what would happen today if the interest rates were suddenly doubled? But, it's not impossible, in fact, Greenspan said that the interest rates have to go double digit within a few years.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
Remember the Roaring Twenties
The money was flowing. The Fed increased tbe money supply to 62% A new loan called the margin loan was introduced. These loans could be called in at any time. The mass calling in of these loans resulted in the crash of 29. Instead of expanding the money flow the Fed contracted it creating the Great Depression.
That's their plan,
but they'll never attain it.
No, they will not
They have run out of three things that have always been in their favor. I will let you guys figure out what they are.
very interesting. thank's
very interesting. thanks for the post.
so if the elite want gold
so if the elite want gold and silver why wouldn't you?! tstorey DO SOME RESEARCH! Gold and silver have been money since the beginning of time and still are today! they will resume there roll of being money again.. all you have to do is research world history! so if the Russians, Chinese, Arabs, and Indians are buying--- why wouldn't you want to? if my dollar is being printed printed printed like you say on that graph then I WANT GOLD AND SILVER! the problem is even Greenspan knows what golds role is.. he used to be a gold bug.. but this manage you with fear stuff is being used in the reverse.. get out of gold and silver they will collapse in the depression.. then they come in and buy a limited resourse for cheap.. why do you think Ron Paul wants a dollar backed by gold? so it will hold its value.. in 1913 1 dollar bought what 97.00 buys today.. 1n 1913 a 1 oz. gold coin baught a mans fine suit.. today 1 oz. gold coin will buy more then 1 mens suit! get it!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
If gold were not being manipulated,
it would buy an Armani suit and shoes, not two from JC Penney's!
Depression?/ Resession?/ Deflation?/ Inflation?/ Hyperinflation?
Aren't all of these terms used for various crisis situations caused by the very same group of international bankers in various parts of the world throughout history? The crisis is first caused by them and then they bring forth the desired goal such as a puppet regime, more control for them or both.
What would be the exact term for a complete collapse of anything corrupt including them this time that fell from it's own weight so a new system could be put into place? What if that included part of the government, various banks and other financial institutions, wall street, many large corporations, the mortgage industry, the FEDs, IRS and the dollar? We have never had that situation before but isn't that what seems to be happening all around us? If so, it would not fit any known term and maybe that is why it is so difficult to predict the exact repercussions from even the most brilliant, seasoned economists.
In my humble opinion, no matter what is played out and what it is called what will be important are the same basic survival necessities that have stood the test of time. These of course would be shelter, food, water, clothing, some cash on hand, a form of protection, some precious metals and a good dose of humor to see you through it all. By whatever name obviously something big is happening and it has no precedent. Maybe I am being overly optimistic in light of everything, but I think the old parasitic system has to fall to make room for something new to be put into place. What if it creates an opening for enough people to demand a return to our Constitutional Republic and all that is part of Ron Paul's message of a sound economy that is better for everyone? Hopefully, this storm that is coming doesn't last too long.
Oooooo,
sounds right to me. My hope is that while the top players will all jockey for a better position and power, they will start taking each other out.
Predators, by nature
that is what they do; turn on each other. It is already happening every day. It is truly the nature of the beast. They, by themselves, will cause their own demise.
What happened to Robbespierre
was not a one-time event, but a principle that stalks the underworld, even the rich underworld.
I am not familiar with him
but there will be volumes written about many before it is finished.
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ARTICLE ON AUGUST 1ST.
I am not an Elliot Wave theorist. Instead, I am very interested in the relationship between population and the economy because population is the most fundamental building block of the economy.
Take a look at this article on August 1st. I just found this by accident, but this figure is nearly identical to what I picture in my mind. This is a blog and I think if a new article is posted, this article will go into an archive, so just remember that I'm talking about the post on August 1st, 2008.
http://www.oftwominds.com...
I think that the figure illustrates the significance of the next decade. This is one of the reasons why I think that a major crash is likely to start between Q3 2009 and Q2 2010. Also, I think that the next decade is likely to be quite different from this decade as the figure also seem to suggest. This is one of the reasons why I am concerned about gold and silver. Ultimately, I think that gold is likely to keep its value in the long run, but the price of gold could potentially fluctuate wildly up or down at the start of the new decade. In other words, I am not predicting if gold would go up or down, but I am concerned about the volatility up or down. And, in my view, silver is likely to be even more volatile up or down.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
elliot wave shmelliot wave
if "they" want a crash they will have one.
Attribute the effect to the correct cause.
"They" is the cause because the casino belongs to them.
It isn't some sort of "happenstance."
Crash is theirs.
Depression is theirs.
Inflation is theirs.
Gold is theirs.
It is all their stuff they do what they want.
Stuff doesn't just "happen."
The man behind the curtain....go get Toto and bite him!
but ........ just like the
but ........ just like the laws of physics you have the laws of economics..
and those laws can be violated only so many times till the violaters get caught! this is what so many people on here do not understand! the system has CRASHED! the ones who "own and can everything" are keeping this thing together with bubble gum and paste.. all they are doing is delaying the day of reckoning! and in delaying they are making it much worse.. you guys need to get over your public school brainwashings! Gold is Gold... it has been since the beginning of time and it is still here today! ALL the major empires have come and gone! there FRN's or what ever they had did not survive either!
CRASH IS THEIRS and YOUR PROBLEM
DEPRESSION IS THEIRS and YOUR PROBLEM
INFLATION IS THEIRS and YOUR PROBLEM
GOLD IS THEIRS and can ALSO BE YOURS! THINK!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
silver is a much smaller
silver is a much smaller market so yes its volatitlity will be worse.. we see such volatility today! soon silver will trade in dollars going up or down like gold today.. next you will see gold trading in hundreds of dollars up or down.. as the worl populations lose faith in the government script they produce, where are people going to turn? there are 6 billion people on this planet... there are 6 billion ounces of gold above ground and 1 billion ounces of silver.. is 1 ounce of gold and a tenth of an ounce of silver enough for you? remeber we are not the only country counterfeiting money to keep bubbles going.. Russia, China india etc are doing it too.
when the dollar collapses those others will look at there own currencies much harder!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Question
Now that you've got me investing and watching precious metals , why is platinum so valuable ?? Is is so much rarer than gold or does it have a specific use that sets it apart ???
Platinum is a metal used in
Platinum is a metal used in car cateletic converters, and jewelry
mostley... it has gotten hammered lately. it was at what 2200.00 now down to 1630! something is going on there I don't understand! all i can figure is that the car manufactures were down huge last month and demand maybe drying up.. also they just came out with a report that they have a process to be able to use silver now instead of platinum in the cateletic converters.. so 18.00 bucks an ounce vs 1630.00 I don't think that is whats happening but who knows!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Sierra
Thanks for the info. I agree there is something going on with this.
I might be totally wrong, but
I think I've read that platinum is harder to refine. Platinum also has some important industrial use from what I read.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
You are positively biased. On the other hand,
I don't know what will happen. Especially, I have no idea what gold and silver might do in 2009 and 2010. It could go up a lot, but it could go down a lot. Who knows. But, on the other hand, I believe it is a very reasonable assumption that I will need U.S. dollars to pay my bills and taxes in 2009 and 2010.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
lol and you can use gold and
lol and you can use gold and silver to pay those taxes with.. alkl you have to do is trade silver/gold for dollars, just like exchanging euros for dollars, dollars for yen etc.. the problem is the dollar is sliding.. the gold and silver coin goes up in value so when In need to trade my silver dollar for dollars I actually get more dollars needed then to pay my taxes! now ofcourse it could reverse and I get less dollars but its the same with other currencies too! he who has help dollars in the last 8 years has lost much purchasing power.. he who has had gold and silver has prospered.
the fundementals are worse now then 8 years ago.. the fed keeps doing the wrong thing! its not hard to see where the metals are going.. nystrom beleives that the fed will step in and pull a volcker.. I don't beleive they will defend the dollar,, if they do its a depression that makes the great depression look like and after prom party! and with that come civil strife!
so what will they do.. inflate the hell out of the currency, then at the brink of the collapse they will have a terror attack or a natural disaster to blame the crash on! thus bringing the American people together like 911.. hopefully averting a civil disobedience/rioting/ civil war! etc.. If the fed were to defend the dollar and the economy collapsed they the American people would vote out all the bums in DC they would want there heads on sticks! everyday this economy sucks more and more people see Ron Paul as a prophet! slowly but surley!
this is what they fear so they will inflate as long as possible!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Well, when so many people are so much in debt and
their income prospects aren't good, I'm not so sure if it would be so easy to trade gold and/silver for dollars. I wonder how they can give me dollars that they don't have.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
---
soemone always wants gold
soemone always wants gold and silver and will gladly exchange dollars for them if there are no peices of paper called dollars around because the value goes to 0 what would you rather have.. there will come a day soon when people will take silver or gold.. during the oil crisis in the 70's people who had silver dimes were put at the front of the line to get gas.
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
HOW THE BIG U.S. HOUSING
HOW THE BIG U.S. HOUSING BAILOUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO UNHINGE THE WORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS, AND SEND THE U.S. DOLLAR DOWN...AND GOLD UP
Lawrence B Lindsey is the former assistant to the president for economic policy and a respected economist with both an academic and consulting background. Mr. Lindsey wrote a big article for today's Wall Street Journal. A link to the article is below, but I would like to quote from the last two paragraphs of that article. He is speaking about the convoluted 700 page bill that will bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"The legislation also creates long-term uncertainty with regard to the extent and form of government assistance. In effect, Treasury Secretary Paulson now has an open-ended mandate to bail out the nation's troubled housing finance market, the largest single capital market in the world.
If any other country announced that its finance minister could print unlimited debt to do something similar, financial markets around the world would dump both the country's debt and the country's currency. It may well be different because this is the United States of America. But certainly, to take such a risky and unprecedented step, a better crafted and considered piece of legislation should have been created."
TO QUOTE MR. LINDSEY "IF ANY OTHER COUNTRY HAD ANNOUNCED THAT ITS FINANCE MINISTER COULD PRINT UNLIMITED DEBT TO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR, FINANCIAL MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD WOULD DUMP BOTH THE COUNTRY'S DEBT AND THE COUNTRY'S CURRENCY."
For those who have not believed up until now that the U.S. would flood the world market with currency, this is how the U.S. will create the inflation that will send gold up and the dollar down. Clearly, you cannot bail out the single largest capital market on earth by printing money without creating:
1) A much lower value for the U.S. dollar.
2) A much higher price for gold.
You can see the entire article here:
http://online.wsj.com/art...
with this I see inflation.. atleast in the price of food, fuel. gold , silver..
This has all been prophesized in the Bible about the END TIMES
Mostly in Revelation. We will see corrput governments, wars and talks of wars and also a One World Government for a short time before Jesus returns to rule for 1,000 years. Our leaders and their puppet masters have sold their souls to SATAN and we are being led to slaughter!.
I respect some of those who do not share my personal religious convictions, however, don't base your opinions of the True Christian faith by the sheeple of the neo-con hijacked Evangical Christians that are being used by their Masters, Dobson, Hagee and the "Family Values' wing. They have been completely brainwashed! Jesus told us to LOVE our enemies, NOT commence Pre-Emptive Strikes because they "might attack us" line of Complete CRAP!
Is it ANY WONDER that the people of Muslim faith Hate the U.S.? I honestly can't say that I blame them! Our government has been over there bombing, murdering and raping their countries and their people for YEARS! The governments of the world are basically ALL corrupt, but it is the innocent people who suffer the most for their atrocious behavior.
You always post in defense of gold and silver ...
The other result is still a possibility.
Free up your mind.
I will pray for you tonight.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
also don't pull a jz....
also don't pull a jz.... back up your thoughts... I do not see any evidence to the contrary..
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
Evidence that dictates the future?
Where would I find that?
It is all anecdotal. So I rely on my brain and its scatoma. Its filter has gotten me this far. My only problem is that it regards links, names, and reference points as unimportant. I have counteracted this by real time research to discover validity. I have tried different virtual and real filing systems, but alas I have learned to live with my faults.
I would be as dumb as a rock without the internet.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
Rhino....its like a pool
Rhino....its like a pool table.. when the pool ball hits another ball the other ball will go where it is supposed to go! Gold and silver have been money since the beginning of mans written recorded history.. what you are seeing is gold and silver reclaiming that role as MONEY! putting trust in mens financial paper assets is in my opinion foolish.. check your history! EVERY currency ever produced by man has become worthless!
yet gold and silver still hold value today! for over 5,000 years! now you free up your mind.. history repeats!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
In my opinion you are right..
I don't know what else makes sense in this situation. We have a world wide monetary crisis and every currency is fiat. Europe and Japan are in major debt as well as the US. What country has a sound monetary system? There's not a country or region that is safe right now. People have to understand that they working hard to get these papers and they are worth nothing. History has told us that gold and silver work. We are going through another cycle. It's a cycle of truth and understanding.
as I see it..... they are
as I see it..... they are trying to form a one world government.. they must have a one world currency, a one world religion etc... lol hell listen to the afro marxists remarks in germany when he was there!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
All true and you will be proven right over time but ...
this may be proven an eon from now, or months from now. We do not know.
There is a micro as well as a macro. The macro is inevitable. The micro path can take detours that last years or decades.
That is all I am saying.
I wish you well.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
I agree with years, but not
I agree with years, but not decades... but as the fed keeps shooting its self in the foot its not hard to see whats coming!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
What about eons, do you agree with eons?
LOL
You are still stuck.
But if you are proven right, I hope you become very wealthy. Freedom will benefit.
WAHOR!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/...
to see eons go study world
to see eons go study world history.. look what happened to rome, greece etc. eons are not hard to see.. every major empire has gone bust.. we are no different!
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
I'll wait for the youtube, I'm broke.
I am sure it is worth watching and thanks for posting. I think the one thing that is hardest to judge is the intervention of the fed.
When they do something that seems a little smart and the masses rush back into the market. I have noticed that the masses or dumb enough to stay in, they think their being smart buy not buying currently, but add a little hope and whamo! their back in with both feet.
Immagine how RP must feel thinking the crash is always around the corner. When I was first enlightened last year, I though each week was the end. Add a couple $trillion later and it has sustained and avoided apparent devastation.
I am not sure caos will happen. I am prepared for it, but I think the next 4-5 years of people loosing jobs, the market losing 100+pts weekly, possible tax increases, entitlements going broke, Dec 2009(CODEX), Dec.2012(?), will all play a part in a mass re-think about what is really important in life, honesty.
revue this and tell me this
revue this and tell me this is not what is going on!
Jim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006
First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now